Accelerated release of terminal demand
Advantages and impacts of high-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate: High-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate (with a powder compaction density of above 2.6g/cm³, also known as the fourth-generation LFP) can increase the filling amount of active materials in a unit volume, form a more continuous conductive path to reduce the resistance of electron transmission inside the electrode, and shorten the distance of lithium ions from the electrolyte to the surface of the active material, ultimately achieving a dual improvement in energy density and charging rate, which is an important direction for promoting the progress of lithium iron battery technology. The urgent demand for fast charging performance in the terminal market is driving the accelerated iteration of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, and the application of high-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate is thus ushering in a period of rapid growth. Its application scenarios are expanding from pure electric vehicles to fields such as high-capacity hybrid and commercial vehicles, and it has entered the stage of large-scale volume release. Taking CATL as an example, the shipment proportion of its fast charging products in the market is continuously increasing, and it is expected to exceed 70% in 2025. To meet the higher demand for fast charging, many battery companies are actively deploying technologies with higher charging rates. At the beginning of 2025, 6C fast charging technology has made new progress and further moved towards commercial use. For example, Honeycomb Energy has released the third-generation short knife cell super charging version supporting a 6C peak charging rate, and SAIC-GM has also announced that its 6C ultra-fast charging battery jointly developed with CATL will be applied to the newly upgraded Ultium 900V platform within this year. In addition, it is generally expected in the market that CATL and BYD will respectively launch the second-generation Shenxing battery and the second-generation Blade battery. These new products with iterative upgrades in energy density and fast charging performance will further stimulate the demand for high-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate. In the field of energy storage batteries, increasing energy density is also an important demand. Taking the 314Ah cell as an example, its energy density has increased by more than 10% compared to the 280Ah cell of the same manufacturer, which also requires an increase in the compaction density of lithium iron phosphate.
Accelerated concentration of competition pattern
Technical thresholds and challenges: The production of high-pressure solid lithium iron requires higher technical requirements, thus forming a concentrated competition pattern. Compared with lithium iron phosphate with a compaction density below 2.6g/cm³ that only requires one sintering, the technical thresholds of high-pressure solid lithium iron mainly lie in two aspects: one is that the particle distribution is difficult to precisely control, and high-temperature sintering is prone to generating iron phosphide impurities; the other is that a large amount of gas production is likely to damage the carbon coating, resulting in an increase in specific surface area and impedance, and an increase in iron dissolution. In addition, the production of high-pressure solid lithium iron also brings some new technical challenges, such as low porosity may lead to insufficient electrolyte penetration, and uneven stress distribution may lead to a decrease in the mechanical strength of the electrode sheet. Therefore, mastering technologies such as coating, doping, and size particle gradation (gradient design) to optimize comprehensive performance constitutes a technical barrier for lithium iron phosphate manufacturers. Among many enterprises, Fuling Jinggong and Hunan Yuneng have relatively rapid development in the field of high-pressure solid lithium iron and have achieved mass production of products with a compaction density above 2.6g/cm³. Although enterprises such as DF Nanomaterials, Longpan Technology, Wanrun Xinneng, and Anda Technology also have related capacity layouts, their corresponding products are still in the trial and verification stage. However, the shipment of some enterprises' third-generation 2.5g/cm³ medium and high-pressure solid products is relatively smooth, and there is a certain price increase space. It is worth noting that Fuling Jinggong and Hunan Yuneng respectively represent different technical routes and capacity reserves, which has made the competition pattern of the high-pressure solid lithium iron market show a preliminary differentiation trend, and this differentiation trend is accelerating towards the head enterprises. Among them, Fuling Jinggong is based on the oxalic acid ferrous route and has taken the lead in achieving large-scale mass production of high-pressure solid lithium iron. Compared with other technical routes, the oxalic acid method has unique advantages. It can directly generate active materials with high purity and high crystallinity, and is conducive to obtaining smaller and more uniform particles, which are crucial for improving the performance of high-pressure solid lithium iron. The company has achieved high-scale volume release in the third quarter of 2024, with the quarterly shipment of high-pressure solid products exceeding 35,000 tons, and it is expected that the shipment in the fourth quarter will further reach 40,000 tons. In addition, CATL has already locked in Fuling Jinggong's demand orders of at least 140,000 tons per year during 2025 - 2027 in advance, which not only provides a stable market demand for Fuling Jinggong but also confirms its technical advantages and quality assurance in high-pressure solid lithium iron products from the side. With the gradual release of Fuling Jinggong's production capacity, its advantages in the field of high-pressure solid lithium iron are expected to be further consolidated and expanded. The first phase of its Jiangxi base was put into production in September 2024, and 6 production lines have been built, with an annual production capacity of 75,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials; the first line of the second-phase project is expected to be put into production in May 2025, and after the entire project is completed, it will have an annual production capacity of more than 300,000 tons, and Fuling Jinggong will be able to more fully meet the growing market demand for high-pressure solid lithium iron. Hunan Yuneng adopts a secondary sintering process, that is, using two sintering steps with different temperatures and/or atmospheres to optimize the microstructure of materials. The differences in material precise ratio, particle morphology control, sintering temperature and time constitute the technical barriers of the secondary sintering process. According to the introduction, Hunan Yuneng's layout in the secondary sintering technology is 2 - 3 years earlier than other enterprises, and it has accumulated richer data and experience in this process. In terms of production capacity, the 200,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production capacity put into production by Hunan Yuneng in Yunnan in the third quarter of 2024 may be all applied to high-pressure solid lithium iron in the future, and by superimposing the switching of some production lines to high-pressure solid, it is expected to achieve a catch-up in the production of high-pressure solid lithium iron in 2025. In the solid-phase process route, compared with the oxalic acid method, the secondary sintering method is more mainstream. Enterprises such as Longpan Technology (Changzhou Liyuan), Wanrun Xinneng, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Anda Technology all adopt the secondary sintering method, but most of their corresponding products are still in the verification stage. DF Nanomaterials adopts a liquid-phase process route, and its products have more outstanding performance in cycle life and lower energy consumption. It is reported that the proportion of its products with a compaction density above 2.6 has reached 10%, and it plans to improve the high-pressure solid production capacity by converting the manganese lithium iron production line to lithium iron. It can be expected that Hunan Yuneng, Longpan Technology and other enterprises, by cooperating with the integrated production capacity layout, are expected to highlight the cost advantage of high-pressure solid lithium iron and achieve a latecomer advantage. For example, Hunan Yuneng has laid out the Guizhou Huangjiapo phosphate mine (designed production capacity of 1.2 million tons of phosphate ore per year) and the Dashichang phosphate mine (expected annual production capacity of 2.5 million tons). In the long run, it is expected to achieve full self-supply of phosphorus sources, thereby reducing costs through phosphorus source integration; Longpan Technology cooperates with CATL in the layout of 40,000 tons of lithium processing + battery recycling to reduce costs through lithium source integration.
Game between price increase and cost
Price increase trend and reasons: The price increase trend of high-pressure solid lithium iron is becoming increasingly obvious. According to market data, as of December 2024, the price difference between Fuling Jinggong's power-type high-pressure solid products and its peers has been widened to 2,500 yuan. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the industry has experienced multiple rounds of price increases, and the processing fee of 2.55 - 2.65g/cm³ compaction products has increased by 1,000 - 3,000 yuan. This price increase trend was further confirmed at the beginning of 2025. For example, in BYD's January bidding, the maximum price increase of high-pressure solid lithium iron reached 1,500 yuan, but there are differences in the price increase of different suppliers. Behind the price increase is actually a trade-off between cost and benefit. In the production process of high-pressure solid lithium iron, the secondary sintering process has higher requirements for the grinding of lithium iron phosphate, which directly leads to an increase in power consumption; at the same time, the decrease in production efficiency has brought about an increase in unit depreciation. Combining these factors, the unit cost has increased by more than 2,000 yuan. However, head enterprises have formed corresponding coping strategies. They ensure stable income by locking in large-scale orders, and at the same time incorporate the defective products generated in the development process of the fourth-generation products into the order system of the second and third-generation products to effectively hedge against the pressure of rising costs.
Outlook
Looking forward to 2025, with the accelerating penetration of fast charging batteries in the market, it is expected that the demand of the two leading battery enterprises for high-pressure solid lithium iron will exceed 500,000 tons. On the supply side, Fuling Jinggong is accelerating the climbing of production capacity, and enterprises such as Hunan Yuneng are also increasing investment. These changes mean that high-pressure solid lithium iron will become an important catalyst for promoting a new round of reshuffle and integration in the lithium iron phosphate industry, and the market share will further concentrate on the head enterprises with the triple advantages of technology, orders, and cost in the future.